Looking forward--------

I was born in 1936, in the middle of the Great Depression. Needless to say I remember nothing about those days in a macro sense, but quite a few things at the micro level that effected my family, until well after the depression was over.


My father, who was an orphan, managed, with the great assistance of an older brother, to graduate college and law school. However, in that economy, the choices for young lawyers without the right connections, who were also highly idealistic, was not good. Before I was born as unemployment reached over 20%, my father quit the law, took the test to become a teacher. He then worked worked until just a few years before his death as an educator for the New York City Board of Education. While teachers today are still not overly well compensated back then they were in far worse shape. At the same time he worked other jobs, tutoring children, running night schools, summer camps and during the war, also in the summer, as an electrician in a shipyard racing to turn out cargo ships to haul sustenance and the tools of war to the troops in Europe.
As I remember it we never had any money and were not even able to finish a month without the check book and wallet being completely empty. A revolving loan of five dollars, from my grandmother, until the 1950's, carried us through. We owned some furniture (some of it still in use), always rented and frequently moved, to take advantage of the free months rent each land lord would give to attract new tenants. We had no debt and no stocks and not until 1948, when we almost went off the Bear Mountain bridge in our 1934 Pontiac, with the leaky fabric roof and no heater, did we get a "modern" Chevy, which was a pre war design.


I do not remember feeling behind the curve until late in high school when I saw my friends families prospering, while my father, who by personality and life experience, remained very risk adverse, staying well protected in the civil service system.


That is what I see looking back and unfortunately what I see, and worse, for many, as I look forward.


The financial crisis we are in today is not just a low level economic dip that anyone my age has experienced from the 1970's through the Dot. Com bust of the early 2000's. This is the real McCoy and it will take years for the effects of the recent and continuing collapse for the economy to restore itself to a comfortable growth rate. To date, in most local economies the pain is primarily affecting real estate values. But the spill over into everyday life will follow and hang on with a vengeance.


The popular belief of certain politicians, that Wall Street is not connected to Main Street is total eye wash and the concept that what has happened is the fault of greed confined to Wall Street is worse than self serving.


The ones who ran and prospered unnaturally on the greater Wall Street were a creation demanded by the satisfaction of the wants and hence needs, of those living on Maine Street. The ability to effectively regulate and control both sides of that equation has always evaded man and the governments they create.


Even when governments try, the ingenuity of man soon finds a way around the pesky regulations to serve the needs of hard wired human materialism and personal greed.
It is also safe to say that the economy and lifestyle that enfolds us as we recover will not look like what we have seen over the past 50 years. In addition this country will not have the same international position and clout that we earned and have enjoyed since world War II. For my children and my grandchildren it will be a totally different reality with many unpleasant experiences for them that they will, at the least, learn from.


Fresh leadership will come to the table. We will, in my view, be watching Barack Obama take the oath of office in January. I see no way for a majority of the people to elect a candidate tied to the party in power, no matter how loosely, as the country becomes immersed in a debacle such as the one we now face. Unfortunately, Mr. Obama, bright and articulate as he is, is not equipped by experience to assume such a position and his underlying philosophy, no matter how he tries to play it down, runs far from the basic foundations that have contributed mightily to the successful American experience .


In fairness, I also feel less than enthusiastic about Senator McCain primarily because of his age and his choice of a running mate who could well be less than a full heartbeat from the presidency. As for the fringe candidates, I cringe.


So, if Mr. Obama is elected I will offer my full support and all my energy, in my less than meager way, to urge him and his administration to face reality, to forego their airy dreams and bring us back to equilibrium without killing the advantages of the American economy and reasonable free market activities that cannot be stopped in any event.


If he follows the lead of ranking legislators in his party who, along with a good many Republicans, turned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the absurd behemoths they became, in a misguided effort to provide home ownership to those who could not afford homes, we will be in worse shape.


If he tries to effectively redistribute the wealth of America to those who have not, for any number of reasons, earned it, his cure will poison our economic well for far longer than a decade. His plans to remove more low wage earners from the tax rolls magnifies his philosophic beliefs and is totally inappropriate. While there can be much debate as to what a fair, graduated tax should be the concept that some can avoid even token payments for the right and good fortune of being an American is wrong.


One should look forward with enthusiasm, this country always has. It is difficult for me to do so at this time.